Will Lewis Hamilton race better now that he’s (allegedly) dating Shakira? Science says maybe.
An objective, empirical, and indisputable look at the correlation between Lewis’ dating history and on-track performance
In 1967, Loren Chapman and Jean Chapman coined the term “illusory correlation” to establish that the correlation of two variables does not imply causation.
But, frankly, Chapman and Chapman weren’t around when Lewis Hamilton earned P2 and was declared Driver of the Day at the Spanish Grand Prix when Shakira happened to be in the paddock.
A photo of them at dinner together triggered an onslaught of dating rumors, some “Get in there, Lewis!”-es, and unsavory pole position comments from some Redditers who probably need to touch some grass.
But aside from Team LH 1 finally getting a mother, the emergence of the alleged couple raised the important question of whether or not Shakira’s presence caused Lewis’ impressive on-track performance (never mind Mercedes’ upgrade package or track-specific strengths, I guess).
But what about Lewis’ lowly P6 in the Miami Grand Prix, after which he was also spotted on a boat with Shakira? you may ask. Well, Shakira and Tom Cruise were seen on the grid prior to the race (and she proceeded to have to swat away additional dating rumors, despite Tom Cruise’s persistent horniness), so that’s a pretty big confounding variable if you think about it.
In order to test the hypothesis that romantic harmony off track translates to points on track, we need a bigger set of data.
We can look no further than Lewis’ on-and-off relationship from 2007-2015 with Pussycat Doll Nicole Scherzinger for evidence.2 Below is a (admittedly, non-comprehensive) longitudinal analysis of the eight-year relationship. I look specifically at the relationship between moments of split and reconciliation and Lewis Hamilton’s performance on track in terms of qualifying vs. finishing race position and relative result to his teammate.
Evidence supporting the hypothesis:
Um, see above! The 2014 season!!!
Nicole Scherzinger was in the paddock for the 2009 Hungarian Grand Prix (k-i-s-s-i-n-g), where Lewis won from 4th on the grid, despite his Mclaren tractor.
In September 2009, following rumors of turmoil in the relationship, Lewis retired from the Italian Grand Prix, despite qualifying on pole. He hit the barriers at the second Lesmo on the last lap and was classified P12. Jenson Button in the Brawn won the race, meaning that Lewis mathematically conceded from championship contention for the year.
After the couple reportedly broke up in January 2010, Lewis fumbled during the first part of the season, taking his first win of the season in race seven, the Turkish Grand Prix. (The 2010 Mclaren wasn’t even the worst Lewis had to drive. The team finished second in the constructor’s championship, 44 points behind Red Bull.)
Lewis and Nicole split again in October 2011. In the Oct. 9 Japanese Grand Prix, Lewis had a sloppy race, including a collision with Felipe Massa. He finished P5 behind Button in P1 and Sebastian Vettel in P3, who was crowned champion that race after his necessary points finish.
Evidence not supporting the hypothesis:
One month before the Australian Grand Prix season opener in March 2012, Lewis and Nicole rekindled their relationship. But during the race, despite qualifying on pole, Lewis took P3 at the checkered flag, finishing behind teammate Jenson Button, who won the race.
Lewis and Nicole got back together in early August 2013, much to the surprise of fans:
At Spa later that month, though, he qualified on pole, but lost out to Sebastian Vettel in the Red Bull, who did not expect to dominate the race.
After what appeared to be a secret meet-up in October 2013, Lewis finished P6 in the following grand prix in India, behind his teammate, losing three positions in the race.
Lewis pretty much had the leg up on teammate Nico Rosberg at the beginning of the 2015 season, despite his Feb. 2015 breakup with Nicole. Rosberg said, “He drove like a world champion all weekend” in Australia. (And honesty, the Rosberg/Hamilton hot-and-cold relationship puts the Lewis/Nicole drama to shame.)
Conclusion:
You’ll just get a different answer depending on what armchair expert you ask.
But if you agree with u/Mijolnir, who, on a 12-year-old Reddit post about the couple, said, “Who the hell gives a shit? Fuck this, it has nothing to do with f1,” you’re right wrong.
If Will Buxton’s extensive questioning of Fernando Alonso about Taylor Swift dating rumors wasn’t an indication, gossip is an engrained piece of sports culture. I will save the WAGs discourse for another day!
Though this report didn’t yield enough evidence to support the hypothesis, I really do feel like we’re onto something here: A 2016 study “Does Love Influence Athletic Performance? The Perspectives of Olympic Athletes” found that most athletes (15 of the 20 participants) self-reported that feelings of love enhanced their performance. It’s important that in the context of my extremely not-at-all speculative newsletter, I avoid talking about the study’s limitations, such as its small sample size, self-report methodology, and gender-specific descriptions of love. I have a psychology degree!!!
At this rate, we can still reasonably expect Lewis to win his 9th 8th championship any week now. And if not, fingers crossed for an XNDA feature on a Shakira song 🙏🏻
Which I have to, for journalistic integrity reasons, admit that I am a part…
Pls no parasocial relationship discourse on my Substack! This is what some may call,,,satire.